1.17  All major causes of Earth warming

Observed warming of Earth and all the major causes

Panel a): Observed global warming (increase in global surface temperature) and its very likely range. 

Panel b): Evidence from attribution studies, which synthesize information from climate models and observations. The panel shows temperature change attributed to total human influence, changes in well-mixed greenhouse gas concentrations, other human drivers due to aerosols, ozone and land-use change (land-use reflectance), solar and volcanic drivers, and internal climate variability. Whiskers show likely ranges.

Panel c): Evidence from the assessment of radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. The panel shows temperature changes from individual components of human influence, including emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and their precursors; land-use changes (land-use reflectance and irrigation); and aviation contrails. Whiskers show very likely ranges. Estimates account for both direct emissions into the atmosphere and their effect, if any, on other climate drivers. For aerosols, both direct (through radiation) and indirect (through interactions with clouds) effects are considered.

Global surface temperature was 1.09 °C higher in the period 2011–2020 than in the period 1850–1900

It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. 

Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.

The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years

Reference: IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf – 9 Aug 2021 – page 6,9